Messam Misses Out: Two Extremes Dominate All Blacks 35 Man Training Squad

May 14/12

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Steve Hansen and his merry men – Ian Foster and Grant Fox – have signalled their first intention with the selection of 35 names for the two All Black training camps ahead of the Steinlager Series – the three Test matches versus the touring, Irish, in June.

iamjonnyking will run his rule over the names & number in this post, and save some further reflection for a later piece, or twenty.

In selecting these names, Coach Hansen stated the selection philosophy heading into this series.

“We have two aims with the selection of the players for the camps. Our main aim is to begin to prepare a squad to win the Steinlager Series against Ireland; and secondly, it gives us the opportunity to introduce and work with some younger, talented players in the All Blacks environment.”

In practice, this means 21 names survive from the 2011 Rugby World Cup unit, providing a continuity and a core group of experience Test players to take the World Champions into their first campaign post the celebrations of October 23rd. While there has been some talk about the form of Ma’a Nonu, the two names – Weepu and Williams – will likely dominate the discussion about those who are most blessed.

Hansen affirms he is under no illusions about what is needed at this level, which further sets the paradigm for some of these selections.

“We’ve always felt to win test matches we are going to need experience on the park. History shows us that if you don’t have that you end up struggling. So that was a big part of it. Form was another criterion obviously.”

In short, they believe the All Blacks environment can get the best out of any talent, with proven experience priceless. Two Thousand and Eleven would also illustrate this perspective, as the ructions at Hammett’s Hurricanes left a few out in the cold, with one Cory Jane, repaying the selector’s faith back in spades.

Of the names missing from the full All Blacks 2011 season, and hoping for better things, the name Liam Messam, stands out above all. In superb form for the Chiefs, he loses out to the huge potential of the next generation in, Brad Shields.

Hosea Gear, Jarrad Hoeata, and Zac Guildford, also head the list, while Jimmy Cowan and Corey Flynn, also miss this initial cut. All these names will know that a long season will open opportunity, with only Jimmy Cowan needing some Stephen Donald circumstances to make it back.

The players in early season SupeForm in 2012 that would have been hopeful for a call-up, two from the Canes come to mind, Andre Taylor and TJ Perenara.

The talk of Taylor and Cullen means that many rate his talent in the stratosphere. Hansen made note of the latter, affirming Perenara as,”probably the unlucky one”.

Further stating:

“He’s been playing very well but he’s a year younger and he’s had a really busy Super 15.

“We just feel he’ll be far better off having a wee break from the game rather than being brought into another high pressure environment. But at some point we feel we’ll see him involved in the All Blacks in years to come.”

One can understand this perspective, but in this scribe’s opinion, considering the make-up and style of the Half-backs, Kerr-Barlow can count himself as fortunate.

The other player that may fall into this category is the Crusaders physical second rower, Luke Romano. Although if you have been paying attention, he was one earmarked by iamjonnyking in his supe preview, as a player that could “attempt” to earn the mantle of a Brad Thorn.

Injuries to Richard Kahui and Charlie Faumuina, will likely end their short-term plans for the future, with the shoulder dislocation to Kahui, even more so; taking the number down to 33 presently fit.

Breakdown of the 35

21 names from 2011 Rugby World Cup Squad- Ma’a Nonu, Keven Mealamu, Piri Weepu, Ali Williams, Tony Woodcock, Aaron Cruden, Richard Kahui, Sonny Bill Williams, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Victor Vito, Daniel Carter, Israel Dagg, Andy Ellis, Ben Franks, Owen Franks, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Samuel Whitelock, Andrew Hore, and Adam Thomson.

6 names from the 2011 New Zealand U20 World Cup winning side – Luke Whitelock, Sam Cane, Brodie Retallick, Ben Tameifuna, Beauden Barrett, and Brad Shields.

3 returning All Blacks – Wyatt Crockett, Tamati Ellison, and Ben Smith.

5 new names and faces – Charlie Faumuina, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Julian Savea, Luke Romano, and Aaron Smith.

In terms of a SupeRugby breakdown – Blues 6, Chiefs 7, Hurricanes 6, Crusaders 11, and Highlanders 5 – providing a reasonable division of talent from around Aotearoa.

Based on these 35 names, an iamjonnyking starting 15, would look something like the following:

ALL BLACKS: [15] Israel Dagg. [14] Cory Jane. [13] Conrad Smith. [12] Sonny Bill Williams. [11] Julian Savea. [10] Daniel Carter. [9] Andy Ellis. [8] Kieran Read. [7] Richie McCaw. [6] Adam Thomson. [5] Brodie Retallick. [4] Sam Whitelock. [3] Owen Franks. [2] Keven Mealamu. [1] Tony Woodcock.

The reserves prove a more interesting contest, as some experienced names battle.

Reserves: [16] Andrew Hore. [17] Ben Franks. [18] Ali Williams. [19] Victor Vito. [20] Piri Weepu/Aaron Smith [21] Aaron Cruden. [22] Ma’a Nonu/Tamati Ellison/Ben Smith.

In this collision and contact sport of Kings, there is still time for other developments to change the mix, and with the injuries already stated, the name Robbie Fruean could still be added; another who has stood out for the Saders.

iamjonnyking will seek to focus on some name and contexts, as we further digress on this first stage in the All Black tradition, in this coming year.

Initial thoughts and responses are now all yours!

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

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#supeRUG: The Brumbies Better Under White?

April 21/12

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This piece is like the other personality lurking in the back of your mind, just when you think it’s safe to let it come out and play, the medication wears off, and you are presented with a totally different tangential reality.

Ugh!

While that wasn’t an insight into my mind –  well; not a complete insight – it is a reflection of the direction of this post that you are about to navigate; hardly beset with one direction. Yes, such was a, not-so-vague, reference; settle. The younguns are still overloading with Fizzy in NZ.

Therefore, let me take you down this winding path about a wild horse and a grassy paddock.

Take one involved how the change in the structure of this Super competition had impacted on this one time strong force in Super Rugby that has known some lean times, for some time.

At the “time” when Australian rugby committed three sides into the then, Super 12, the Brumbies quickly became the dominant Australian side.

Historically, Queensland and New South Wales, had been the rugby bedrocks of the Australian code, until this brash unit of players, many I am told; hobbled together from the disenfranchised and disaffected parts of the New South Wales club scene, grew to dominance, and had the titles to prove it.

Until the Reds would win the compeition in 2011, the Brumbies had been the only Australian side to win it all, in the glory days of 2001 and 2004.

However, with the addition of another Australian side in 2006, the already stretching depth in Australian rugby would begin to be out-resourced. In 2011, this has been taken a step further, with even the likes of Eddie Jones, referencing the dilution in Australian rugby; the addition being a fifth Super franchise in Melbourne, the Rebels. New Zealand is now the major resource being mined to make up for what is missing, with the promise of play and pay, worth the trip across the ditch.

This also provides one reason why the voices, particularly in the Republic, long for the days of Super 12, as this justified the talent, in their minds.

Take Two would begin with the news about the young Brumbies openside sensation, Michael Hooper, who announced that he was the latest snapper, stolen by the Waratahs; a young talent heading back to the core of this code. This point would prove much more succinct, but it adds to the narrative, focusing on the Waratahs and now the Reds, sorting their internal “stuff” out, and returning to their dominant position. Cue Richard Graham leaving the Force and returning to the Reds, as another example of the trek for success that is heading to an eastern seaboard.

The Brumbies were the first locale to provide a new hinterland of opportunity in the pristine world of the Australian Rah Rah code. It would only be a couple of years post their success and the Force would be added West, with a certain number lured, even a  favourite son, at that. Now the Rebels have been added to the party, and the narrative continues, as the Australian Conference moves the cash from one pocket to the next; still wearing the same pair of pants.

Take Three began with a look at the stats, and would grow to the header before your very eyes.

The move of Jake White to the Brumbies after four years talking about the event in 2007, was always going to be a talking point, and one of interest. The early results have looked positive, with more results than expected going their way. Australian sources weren’t that hopeful for the Brumbies prospects in 2012, affirming that they were more a 2-3 year project, as this unit with few names, needed the time to build a firm foundation.

However, as we sit Eight weeks into this competition, they sit pretty in the Australian Conference on 24 points, 3 points clear from second place.

Just last night, the Reds were rocked further, failing to gain anything at home versus the Stormers, save the growing injury list. While that looks promising, the shadows of the relative strength in the Australian Conference linger, as they sit on 6th, if points were the only reality to count.

Given these, the shares in the Jake White coaching project have recently risen, with many talking up his effort and the Brumbies in general.

However, iamjonnyking has hit the books. Let the numbers tell their own tale.

Brumbies History, 1996-2004 – 9 years. 6 times in the playoffs. 1997; Runnerup. 2000; Runnerup. 2001; Champions. 2002; Runnerup. 2003; Losing Semifinalist. 2004; Champions.

While the Crusaders would win the final Super 12 in 2005, the Brumbies record when the newly minted Super 14 would start in the next year, 2006, was one of success; sustained over a period that began to define their culture and way.

This is the piece in the post, the turn in the road, the side that takes you blind, the moment of their decline.

Since winning the Super 12 in 2004, the Brumbies have NEVER made the playoffs - 2005; 5th. 2006; 6th. 2007: 5th. 2008; 9th. 2009; 7th. 2010; 6th. 2011; 11th; 2012 ???

As the numbers bear witness, they have been close on many a year, but have been unable to dominate the Australian scene, which has translated competition wide.

Jake White enters the room, and we all take notice.

As we have born witness, they sit on top of the Australian Conference. Success?

Let’s take a little closer look at the numbers, comparing this start in 2012 with that which has gone on before [Numbers in these brackets where they finished at season's end].

Brumbies results through 8 Rounds - 1996 - 5 wins – [5th]. 1997 - 5 wins – [2nd]. 1998 - 2 wins – [10th]. 1999 - 3 wins- [5th]. 2000 - 5 wins – [2nd]. 2001 - 6 wins [1st]. 2002 - 5 wins [2nd].  2003 - 4 wins [4th]. 2004 - 6 wins [1st].

Using the same gauge as previously, we can see some pattern. Six wins in 2001 and 2004, was the start that lead toward success. Five wins was nearly enough in 1997, 2000 and 2002. Four wins good enough for a semi-final. Again, we are talking the days of a 12 team competition.

Next.

2005 - 4 wins - [5th]. 2006 - 5 wins - [6th]. 2007 - 4 wins - [5th].  2008 - 4 wins - [9th]. 2009 - 4 wins - [7th]. 2010 - 4 wins - [6th]. 2011 – 2 wins - [13th].

Interestingly, Four wins in the initial Eight rounds of the Super 14 competition would mean missing out on playoff rugby. Even Five wins would not prove enough early, as the years would show a progressive decline as the competition would move into the backend. This indicates a squad that likely knows the challenge of injury and time, and as the extent of the season has tested this squad, their success had headed further south, with 2011, the final straw for many.

When the top Australian side is guaranteed a playoff spot in SupeRugby, large connotations remain at work.

Time to look for talent upstairs – Coach. 

In light of where this side has been after Eight rounds historically, and their final finish in the more recent years, where do we stand in this new year under Jake White?

As we note the numbers, context is King, and time must be given for the plan to solidify, but a present standing in 2012 of – 4 wins from the initial Eight weeks – means that their present position is indentical to 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, and 2005. They have one less win than 2006.

In fact, the only year that is worse as it relates to wins, post their last playoff appearance, is 2011.

Has Jake White really made that much of a difference?

Have people been flummoxed by the disastrous 2011, forgetting all that had taken place before?

Much of what can be gleamed about the Brumbies can also be set in the larger context of the Australian Conference. This is not only a worry for supporters, but administrators who must be asking the questions that start and end with a cheque book and a Television deal.

How much would you pay to watch an Australian derby?

SupeRugby needs the Australian Conference to be strong. Australian rugby needs the Brumbies to find their way back to their early home. Wild horses, need to remove the bit, and fine their bite; indeed.

This weekend the Brumbies travel to Loftus to take on the Bulls. As we have affirmed, we will give this franchise time to regain their posture, however, we may just be given a short-term insight into the long-term, this weekend.

As we examine their position after Eight weeks, it is looking a little too similar to the past seven years, which has been all black for this Capital side.

Will the White prove right?

The real test lies in what happens next!

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

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#supeRUG: John O’Neill with the Kings SupeSolution?

April 14/12

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In what many are claiming is breaking news now coming to a hand, the thorny issue in South African and SupeRugby could be on the brink of a stunning solution, and from the strangest of sources – Australia.

Claims are being made that honest John O’Neill is the man behind this maverick move, after preliminary discussions with two of the Australian sides, the Rebels & the Force, have proved surprisingly fruitful.

O’Neill reported to have said, “I have a dream,” after waking up at Halftime. Others claim it was a nightmare – He was wide awake throughout the whole 40!

Inside sources claim both clubs are happy with an idea as long as they still get the points. What exactly is this idea? I am glad that you asked.

After taking in another Australian derby, O’Neill considered it reasonable that these two sides will each play half of the required matches in the 2013 SupeRugby season and beyond, thereby opening a spot for another side to join the competition next year. O’Neill himself, when quizzed about the timing of this epiphany, has reportedly explained it away as, “one of those coincidences in life.”

Players inside the Force have been quoted as saying, ”it is all about getting the points each weekend, and if this provides the answer, the players will buy into it. Four points equals a job done, and improves our chances of making the playoffs”

You don’t need Math. You need a Miracle!

The Rebels also seem to have the other bases covered, unofficially stating they will have no problem keeping up their match fitness with the recent implementation of the Danny, just one idea being muted. James O’Connor is said to have further dispelled suggestions in some sectors that this will become an issue with Cipriani heading back to the UK. Reports affirm that O’Connor is satisfied with all players getting together at his place, using a live video feed from Danny’s place in the UK, with music provided live by O’Connor, himself.

Experts are concerned it could affect their Hugh Pyle

Broadcasters can also tentatively see the benefits, as this change will decrease the physical cost on their manpower and resources, as less cameras will be required to cover the entertainment. This is particularly relevant in the Rebels case, as it is believed O’Connor has a number already set up for personal use.

Both sides have made it clear that while they have a Bye every second week, it will still be business as usual on the field, each weekend.

Delivered to your Doorstep, every weekend.

Fans are said to be relaxed on the matter, still committing their support each weekend, with some even claiming this will have no effect on the spectacle dished up.

 Australian Rugby Supporters know their Code

Precise details are yet to come to hand, but O’Neill is understood to have refuted claims the offer from SARU of Pieter de Villiers, and the subsequent acceptance by the ARU, has nothing to do with this decision, although his movements toward Canberra are being watched closely. Brendan Cannon declined to offer any comment, but he did attempt to use words, when responding.

Jake and I braai way back, Bru!

When more details comes to hand, we will break the news to you.

This is iamjonnyking network news – we are the story!

Note: This is intended as a parody. However, if the events as outlined transpire, iamjonnyking will retain the right to sue all involved as this would prove tantamount to a blatant attempt to profit, also impinging on issues of copyright.

In other news: John O’Neill is now on Twitter. His first follow? None other than Lalit Modi. Both said to be DMing with regularity.

This piece has been brought to you as the Citi Moment of Suckcess. More news after the Break.

For all those having problems with this post, please avail yourself of the following. Replicate at your own risk


iamjonnyking

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Eye-Gouging: Pernicious Allegations Now A Malignant Cancer

April 10/12

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Strong words; isn’t this overstating the case?

I don’t believe so, as the situation where the assertion of two Bulls players versus the Crusaders, leaves this champion franchise with nothing but a sullied reputation, without any effective vehicle with which to clear their name.

Yes, the Crusaders can bloviate until they are blue in the face that the citing commissioner had extensive footage, from several camera angles not witnessed by the viewing public, which confirmed that there was no basis for a case to answer.

What a torpid and inept conclusion to this matter.

The problem arises as one side is accused, defending themselves against a charge that has yet to be proven. It is an aspersion, cast, which now lives, as those fans from either side talk their presuppositions into practice.

Let me be clear. I am a Crusaders man. However, I am firstly committed to ideals that are colourblind. Therefore, if a Crusaders player is guilty, let him feel the full force of the book being thrown at him, no matter the personal loss.

Nevertheless, to argue from a position that uses the – it is potential for a player to complete such an act, therefore, the player must have, as this can only justify why a complaint has been made – is not only bankrupt as it relates to a sufficient basis for guilt, it is also false as the only explanation of why the said complaint can be made.

As the scientific method makes clear, without an effective means of falsifiability, the case is already dead in the water.

Kaput.

This is a system of a down, with the white card, opening a door that allows a side significant means, without the same significant basis.

In effect, the Bulls were allowed to make a baseless charge. They weren’t asked any questions, as Peyper followed through. This left the Crusaders in the position of claiming innocence from the start, being found with no case to answer, but leaving this situation with a shadow that whispers and still wonders.

This also explains why Blackadder has demanded an apology if such charges were not proven, as this would bring a resolution, with one party taking responsibility. The burden of proof was on the Bulls, or the investigation, to substantiate the claims.

Now what?

If it is innocent until proven guilty, why does it not feel like this is the case?! 

The Citing Commissioner affirmed that it was strange the Bulls did not follow through with a complaint in the four-hour window. In my opinion, it is much more; it is a character failure on their part.

If the Bulls players were willing to make such claims in the heat of battle, which have been beamed around the world, they have the responsibility to follow through, making a case, also allowing the – innocent until prove – the best possible opportunity to be proven guilty or sufficiently cleared.

The Bulls have allowed the Commissioner to follow through independently - as a result of the white card – and now carry on, feeling little effects from this furore.

As a result of this mess, we have what is a pernicious allegation, festering away, having a life of its own, which can only bring harm to one side. The Bulls leave this situation continuing to assert their own integrity, which is really code for allowing them to continue with their allegation, even as the Saders have been cleared of any case to answer.

The Saders shadow remains.

When I heard these allegations live, I must admit that I was distressed and perplexed, leaving the larger mark for me, after this match. To be honest, even considering such suggestions left me gutted.

It is reasonable to state there is potential that all the cameras have missed something from the Saders, which means this is an anomaly of circumstance. However, as the Russian lock, Adam Brynes, discovered, they don’t miss much now, particularly in light of how rugby is played. This further raises the responsibility on the Bulls to justify their claims. The Crusaders now bear a corporate guilt – if the allegations proved true – that should only be born by those individuals involved.

The injustice continues.

This is an ugly situation that has a life and will likely know no death.

Sanzar must bear much responsibility for opening a door to a situation that only brings more confusion.

I am not happy.

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

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#supeRUG: NZ Form 15 – Six Weeks in with a Grin

April 4/12

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Certainly should not be confused with an All Black starting 15, nor with the conclusion that the following are definitely and defiantly on to the top, in a #supeRUG.

Nevertheless, in these six weeks of rugby, the following players have stood out in the New Zealand Conference… in the still somewhat, vacillating opinion, of this scribe.

iamjonnyking’s NZ 15

15. Andre Taylor [Canes]. What started in 2011 has grown in 2012, as Taylor has made his mark at the back of the Hurricanes. Swapping spots with the All Blacks wingman, Cory Jane, has worked a treat opening up an opportunity for a counter-attacking pathway from the back, where his nous for a gap has been Moses-like. An honourable mention should also go to the Chiefs custodian, Robbie Robinson, who has provided his first prolonged witness that he has the game and temperament for this higher level.

14. With all the in-form flyer’s wanting the 11 jersey, we have decided to swap an 11 to 14.  Julian Savea [Canes]. Until this season, the claim-to-fame for this giant may have been down to his moves on the dancefloor, as his world-leading junior form had yet to fire with the old men. However, the G-man has arrived in attack, blockbusting with ball in hand, while sound under the high ball, and working hard on defence. Another Chief that was close to swapping sides is, Tim Nanai-Williams, deserving an honourable mention. This other Williams in the Chiefs backline was talking 15 when the season started, but time on the wing is starting to show signs that his ability to beat a man in moment’s is firming toward a majority. Also worth his weight in finishing ability is Sean Maitland [Saders].

13. Tamati Ellison [Landers]. A man who left the capital in his prime to stock up his cupboard for a rainy day, has returned from Japan without as much as a shift in performance. The Highlanders were building, then crumbling in 2011, but looked to have bought the depth & edge required to have a stronger tilt at the top. A natural born leader, Ellison, has helped marshal the backline with the numerous changes inside, with his work underscored in the way the Landers have sometimes battled to the victor’s circle. This could be the most competitive position in the NZ Conference, as Conrad Smith [Canes], Robbie Fruean [Saders], and Richard Kahui [Chiefs], are all performing on the field of their play.

12. Sonny Bill Williams [Chiefs]. The man many love to hate has been near his barn-storming, rugby league, best in the early part of 2012. Recently, there has been more radio silence on the much-talked-about individual, even as we have witnessed a growing dimension of his play, as the total eclipse of the pass has been jettisoned for a ramrod down the throat. Smith & Rennie have obviously exhorted Williams to Webb Ellis with it, which has more than dented a number of defences, giving the Chiefs a platform to work phase ball off, and to unleash out wide. Defence-sense also heading in the right direction, all signs that his time in Union should be signed on the dotted line.

11. Hosea Gear [Landers]. The H-Train’s move south in 2012 has provided another cog to their house of gain – class and finishing ability, out on the flank – and he is the size of one. When this physical specimen puts it in the proverbial – gear – there are few who can handle his all-round assets, and we have witnessed enough of his work-rate to encourage those watching his ability from on high. Only just – and I mean, just – keeps the others in 14 at bay – Nanai-Williams – as we still want to see more on the work-rate and signs that the smashmouth is off the tracks.

10. Aaron Cruden [Chiefs]. He has always had it, but it has taken time to witness the blooming extent, and flippen heck. He has continued the control, direction, and pivotal play, which we witnessed in 2011, and is now proving fundamental to the Chiefs return to the top. An honourable mention to Beauden Barrett [Canes]. There was a reason the Blues chased him so hard, as opportunity is proving he has the all round game to pivot a match, and the composure to finish a contest. He has played enough rugby in 15 to know his ball-running skills, but is starting to prove some game-sense and occasion to the moments.

9. Aaron Smith [Landers]. If I was picking my Test side today, the Saders nine, Andy Ellis, would be my man. The form man in this champion unit that has yet to set any world alight, underscoring that it is that close between he and Smith. Ellis has lead his team from halfback, providing an effective and experienced foil for the younger men on the outside and the experienced edge for hardheads. Nevertheless, the stand-out form of Aaron Smith is such that he gets the slight nod, even as it has been the antithesis when picking the back-up, down south. Smith is a young man who is sized a little differently than most in close, but the Bachop-like ability to clear, has been combined with the right sense when to run, giving the Landers an edge on the insides, particularly as they have lost some.

8. Kieran Read (c) [Saders]. When one considers all the different positions in NZ rugby, the boot may be proving the most empty. The Blues have been makeshift in 2012. The Chiefs have been playing a Samoan second-rower for the most part. The Landers have a young man whose game needs the development of time, with the Canes, Double V for Victor Vito, the only other suitable option, deserving an honourable mention. To be sure, he goes very close. Vito has taken a noticeable step forward in his leadership role, with his missing effect, emphatic on the weekend. However, the selection table has noted the hard work from Read, particularly effective on the D, keeping the Crusade together. Will also lead the side.

7. Matt Todd [Saders]. This is another spot that has been waiting to inhale. It has been disappointing to see some young names not making the most in 2012. Luke Braid [Blues]  and Sam Cane [Chiefs] are two that come to mind, even as the early weeks had, John Hardie [Landers], locking this position – down – until injury did the same. Jack Lam [Canes] has been also very close on form, deserving the honourable mention, but the work of Todd has been consistent and it is growing, with this week, his time to shine. In some respects, he gets their on the time as much as toil in his labours.

6. Adam Thomson [Landers]. For those who talk about this man’s form proving that Kaino left at the right time; silence. While Thomson has been in strong early season form, he knows little about the Kaino game & physicality in close, when it comes to the top – but, he does have time. In this #supeRUG season, he has worked well at the breakdown, but brilliantly as a link man and ball playing loosie, with his class clearly missed versus the Brumbies.  An honourable mention for Liam Messam [Chiefs] who has also served notice after the disappointment of the backend of 2011, and can also play a more physical game, if he has the mindset to follow through. Would like to see Messam in Eight, it must be admitted, as this scribe sees the upside given his skillset.

5. Brodie Retallick [Chiefs]. It seems only a matter of time before this big rig gets a taste at an All Blacks level. Although he comes to this level as a rookie, he is playing more like a pro. He has proven more than effective in his core roles, and has evidenced the physical presence both in the tight and loose, where he has the ball skills more akin to placing it in a basket. His time in the Republic will be fascinating as his talents get further tested, but has proven the mentality to handle the cost that is sure to rise.

4. Sam Whitelock [Saders]. Playing in Five for the Red n Blacks, but takes the tight locking spot in a combination that is alive with excitement. Whitelock has all the necessary attributes to take it tighter, and has been proving this in the Saders unit, as the leading son of the clan in 2012.  Another tight call that goes against the bearded one, Jason Eaton [Canes], who has stood out in the pack before injury, but good signs in this battle, as Jarrad Hoeata [Landers] also had a more than adequate return.

3. Ben Tameifuna [Chiefs]. The big Ben is the other young man in the Chiefs pack that has stood tall in 2012. As young as he is big, he has provided a more than solid base for his side to build off in the set-phase, but has also proven his ability to get round the track, handle the pill, distribute the ball, while also laying down the hurt with his 134 reported kegs.  The extent of the season will test out his stamina and fitness, but given his size, he is showing signs of running a big block engine inside. An honourable mention also for Ben Franks – [Saders]. While the Saders scrum has yet to reach the consistency of the 2011 edition, there are signs, and another big Ben has been the basis.

2. Andrew Hore [Landers]. While the depth and up-and-coming talent continues to be a concern, with the return of the man-of-the-land, Hooker-Hore, there is little concern for the top spot on form. While his lineout can often require work, he has stood out in most of the basics and particularly the breakdown, where he is a wet-brick, to move. A Landers scrum that has never been the genius of their play, he has provided more starch and experience to a platform, now more efficient in play. Mahroni Schwalger [Chiefs] has also provided the essential work for the Chiefs, with the Landers back-up-man, Jason Rutledge, deserving a mention as the ideal replacement in the final 20.

1. Arizona Taumalolo [Chiefs]. If you need a Try-5, then this whiz in close can also seal the deal, out wide. There should be no surprise with these selections, given the early season form, and with the basics set, when the solution reads 4 tries in 5 matches, Taumalolo is making a name for himself, even as he wears the pink boots, with some Tongan pride – Chooo-hooo, try! An honourable mention must also go to Jamie Mackintosh [Landers], who has the spot if you want New Zealand eligible players only. Another sizable unit, the Southlander’s all-round game has given him the nod, even as question marks remain about his ability to be a scrum-bag.

5 Chiefs. 5 Landers. 3 Saders. 2 Canes. No Blues.

Probably about right on seasonal reflection, after six rounds, it must be admitted. It will be interesting to compare and contrast as the future fortunes of each team, impact on the individual.

Now it’s your turn.

Name your NZ starting 15 on #supeRUG form!

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

#supeRUG: Competitiveness in a Competition – An Analysis of the Opening Six Weeks in 2012

April 3/12

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For all those who stay near and dear to iamjonnyking - the online edition – you should well remember where this subject has begun before.

However, for all those who have just come inside, from out in the cold, let me quote myself with liberality – special.

Experiencing the changing face of SupeRugby in 2011, when the three country-conference system was introduced, led one to perceive – in real time – that this tournament that began its professional facsimile in 1996 was experiencing a rebirth of competitive-cool, as the results played their way throughout the round robin.

Such was the big idea, but we needed some method to examine my madness.

a competitive test of a given competition can be gauged by analysing how each and every team performs on the road, and away from home.  As these are collated, the percentage toward success rises, and with it; so does the sense that any result is possible when two teams meet, no matter the locale.  My conviction is the competitiveness of a competition is best exemplified when any and every result is a question mark befitting a contest, no matter what the destination.  A growing number, or higher percentage; a good sign that this ‘competitive edge’ is becoming a greater reality.

There would be more.

as part of this analysis, it is not merely who wins and loses in a contest, but also the nature of the battle. A team may win away from home, but if the result is, 0-59, this hasn’t been a contest, but an execution.  Therefore, we further analysed the points distance or differential between the two teams in a SupeRugby contest, as a second means of testing the strength or worth of this competitiveness.

We would cover the years 2009 – 2011 that would help to provide some greater perspective, which you can find the full details – HERE.

Now that we are a third of the way through the round robin phase in #supeRUG 2012, iamjonnyking has decided it is a good time to gauge the season to-date, examining the numbers in the initial six, comparing and contrasting, with the previous data providing effective means for analysis.

Therefore, we will play with this previous post some more, as we provide some greater perspective to the trials and tribulations of #supeRUG 2012.

Time to get your RugbyGeek on!

Away Wins

1] In their Seasons

2009 – the away team in Super 14 won 39.5% of the 91 regular season matches. Or, if you prefer it by the numbers, 36 out of 91 matches, before the playoffs.

2010 – the away team in Super 14 won 34% of the 91 regular season matches. This translates into 31 away wins out of the 91 total. In practice, this was 5 less than the previous year, 2009.

2011 – the away team in SupeRugby won 42.9% of the regular season matches [Hurricanes v Crusaders abandoned due to the Earthquake]. Again, if you prefer the detail, this translates into 51 away wins in the 119 matches.

2012 – the away team in initial six rounds of SupeRugby has won 41.5% of the 41 matches, which translates to 17 away wins in the 41 matches.

However, it is early days in a competition, but if we compare these same six rounds with what transpired in 2011, we find that there were 16 away wins in the first six rounds of 2011, or, the away team would win 40% of the time. In 2011, there were only 40 matches, due to the Canes v Saders calling it off.

Therefore, very similar numbers. When one considers the teams in the called-off match, there is a high probability that these numbers in 2011 and 2012 would be identical.

What this also means is that away wins would improve in number in 2011 as the season would lengthen.

In the final 12 rounds, 35 away wins in the final 79 matches, or, the away team would win 44.3% of the time.

In terms of tipping, if we look at the raw data, there is something of a pattern, trainspotter.

2012 – Away wins – Week One - 3 from 7. Week Two - 3 from 7. Week Three – 3 from 7. Week Four – 3 from 6. Week Five – 2 from 7. Week Six – 3 from 7.

Taking the perspective of the tipster and all those who compete in these online competitions, such as your superBRU, one should expect the “average” of 3 away wins, per round, for the rest of season. The frequency per weekend may change, as there are no guarantees, this should be a pertinent reminder for all those who want to call a contest. Those who are leading in their respective tipping contests will likely be those who know when to call the away win, and when to stay at home.

Compare these numbers with the pattern in 2011.

2011 – Away wins – Week One – 3 from 7. Week Two - 1 from 6. Week Three - 4 from 7. Week Four - 2 from 6. Week Five - 4 from 7. Week Six - 2 from 7.

Finally, in this section, in the aforementioned previous post, we also used another rugby context that is sometimes referenced in connection with SupeRugby to provide some further perspective – The Heineken Cup.

In the round robin portion of the 2009-2010 Heineken Cup, the away team won 27.7% of such matches.  Or, again, if you prefer it with some harder date – 20 of the 72 contests.

2] Country Comparison

In this section, we detail how many away matches have been won by the teams that find their home locale in one of three – New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa

2009 – New Zealand based sides would take 14 away wins of the 36 – 38.8% of the away wins. Both the Australian and South African based sides would each take 11 away wins from the total of 36 - 30.6% of the away wins.

2010 – New Zealand based sides would take 11 away wins of the 31 - 35.5% of the away wins. Australian based sides would take 10 away wins of the 31 - 32.25% of the away wins. South African based sides would also take 10 away wins of the 31 - 32.25% of the away wins.

2011 – New Zealand based sides would take 15 away wins of the 51 - 29.4% of the away wins. Australian based sides would take 15 away wins of the 51 - 29.4% of the away wins. South African based sides would take 21 away wins of the 51 - 41.2% of the away wins.

The change in the South African numbers in 2011 is rather illuminating, and should be encouraging for those pushing the Conference-based system, and for South African competitiveness in SupeRugby, in general. However, a factor in understanding this context will be arrived at shortly; the impact of inter-conference away matches that will provide further insight.

Nevertheless, the question at this point in 2012 is, has this away trend continued?

2012 – In the 17 away wins to-date in the Six Rounds – New Zealand teams have taken 9 [4 wins out of Conference - Hurricanes @ LIONS. Hurricanes @ FORCE. Blues @ BULLS. Crusaders @ LIONS]. Australian teams 3 [Every away win won in Conference]. South African teams 5  [2 wins out of Conference - Both by Cheetahs @ REBELS and @ HURRICANES].

At the same stage in 2011 - in the 16 away wins to date in the Six Rounds - New Zealand teams had taken 5 [2 wins out of the Conference - Blues @ LIONS. Highlanders @ BULLS]. Australian teams 4 [1 win out of the Conference - Force @ LIONS]. South African teams 7 [3 wins out of the Conference - Sharks @ FORCE and @ REBELS. Cheetahs @ WARATAHS].

It would seem obvious that the New Zealand teams have come out with more away purpose early in 2012, as they have nearly doubled their away wins.

Nevertheless, let’s dig a little deeper based on away wins, in and out, of their own Conference.

3] Conference Comparison

While Conference play only came into vogue in 2011, we will also apply this to 2009.

2009 - 11 of the 14 away wins for the teams in the New Zealand Conference – 78.6% – came outside of their Conference. 8 of the 11 away wins for the teams in the Australian Conference – 72.7%  - came outside of their Conference. 7 of the 11 away wins for the teams in the South African Conference – 63.6% – came outside their Conference.

2010 - 7 of the 11 away wins from teams in the New Zealand Conference – 63.6% - came outside their Conference. 7 of the 10 away wins from teams in the Australian Conference – 70% – came outside their Conference. 6 of the 10 away wins from teams in the South African Conference - 60% – came outside their Conference.

2011 - 7 of the 15 away wins from teams in the NZ Conference – 46.6% – came outside their Conference. 5 of the 15 away wins from teams in the Australian Conference – 33.3% – came outside their Conference. 9 0f the 21 away wins from teams in the South African Conference – 42.9% – came outside their Conference

2012 - In the opening Six Rounds – 4 of the 9 away wins from teams in the New Zealand Conference – 44.4% – came out side their Conference. 0 of the 3 away wins from teams in the Australian Conference – 0% – came from outside their Conference. 2 of the 5 away wins from teams in the South African Conference – 40% – came from outside their Conference.

If we are to use the same parameters, and compare these six rounds in 2012 with 2011, the figures are as follows.

2011 – In the opening Six Rounds – 2 of the 5 away wins from teams in the New Zealand Conference – 40% – came from outside their Conference. 1 of the 4 away wins from teams in the Australian Conference – 25% – came from outside their Conference. 3 of the 7 wins from teams in the South African Conference - 42.9% – came from outside their Conference.

While this is still early in the competition, the New Zealand and South African numbers are in the ballpark of the 2011 season, with small rise and fall, respectively. The Australian Conference is also rather routine. Although they have had some time in New Zealand, as we detailed, they have had little time in South Africa. They will be hoping for better results than last season’s champion, Reds.

What we can say without much hesitation is that 2011 has affirmed the importance of winning an away match in YOUR OWN Conference, with 2012 following these numbers early.

New Zealand based sides total wins between 2009 and 2011 remain very similar. However, the percentage of away wins outside of the New Zealand Conference has gone down from 78.6% to 46.6%. Both the Australian and South African sides percentages have also followed the downward slide.

Therefore, if a side can dominate their Conference, both stopping the other sides at their own home and when on the road, this is a growing sign toward obtaining Competition dominance, if 2011 proves trendy.

We have yet to take the final turn toward the points differential in a contest, but before we hit that home straight, let’s take a little excursus looking to the next 12 rounds, thinking through the remaining contests, in light of the thesis of this post to-date.

4] Considering our context, the travel factor for teams from New Zealand and Australia to the Republic, and for the South African teams taking a longer trek, remains a significant component in the coming weeks, both for the home and away side, in each contest.

New Zealand  - The Blues & the Hurricanes have already finished their trips to the Republic, with one success from two, for each. The Crusaders are now in the midst. After a solid win over the Lions, they have a tough one versus the beaten-Bulls, at Loftus.

The two teams on the same points, on top of the New Zealand Conference table, still have to play this move. The Chiefs are just about to embark on a 3 match trip, playing the Force on the way, then the Cheetahs & the Sharks in Week’s 8 & 9. This is a vital time for this side, as both matches in the Republic will be testing. The other side on 22 points is the Highlanders, who have a tough fixture at home this week versus the Stormers. They will travel to the Republic in week’s 10 & 11, also versus the Cheetahs & the Sharks.

If the Chiefs & Landers can take one each in South Africa, with the Chiefs also accounting for the Force on the way over, their season should not be decisively dragged down. However, should the Crusaders beat the Bulls, and the Chiefs and Landers struggle, this opens the door for the most successful franchise to gain an upper hand. When one considers that they will also play 5 of their last 8 matches in Christchurch, they have a downhill draw that helps. Included in this period is a Bye, an away trip to the Rebels, and what could be the most testing contest; an away trip to the Chiefs.

Australia – The interesting point for both the Australian teams and their South African hosts is that only the Reds have been there, and been done by that; getting blanked by the Sharks and stomped by the Bulls, before losing to the Force on the way home.

The Brumbies start their adventure in week 9 vs the Bulls, which should be followed by a potentially easier affair, versus the Lions. The Rebels arrive in week 17, taking on the Lions, & then Stormers in the final week in round robin play – cha-ching. The Waratahs arrive in week 13, taking on the Stormers & Cheetahs.

The final Australian side is the Force, who offer their fruits in the Republic in week’s 11 & 12. After playing the Stormers at home in week 10, they will take on the Cheetahs & the Sharks.  The weakness of the Australian Conference means potential reward in the remaining rounds for the Republicans.

South Africa – The Cheetahs nearly completed their whole deal in Australia & New Zealand, taking two from three. The Sharks are in the midst of this jaunt, crossing the ditch to take on the Hurricanes this weekend, and then the Blues.

Most significant in the present make-up in the South African Conference is the arrival of the Stormers into New Zealand. This week they take on the Highlanders in Dunedin, travel north to take on the returning Crusaders from the Republic, then crossing the pond to take on the Reds & the Force.

The Bulls start their assault in week 11 vs the Rebels, then Waratahs, followed by Highlanders & Chiefs. To be added into their equation, they must then must travel home to take on the Stormers in Pretoria in week 15, who have been home for some weeks, resting up for some pink slipper. Finally, we the Mitch & Spence, and their Lions, who also begin in week 11 with the Chiefs, the Blues, the Reds, and the Force on the way home. In 2011, they would surprise on the road. They will be needing to do the same, and even then some, to stay in the race.

Now that was exciting!

Before I close this book, we have one more, as we examine the closeness in a contest, and the points differential.

Points Differential in a Contest

2009 – 11.7 points per match

2010 – 14.7 points per match

2011 – 11.9 points per match

2012 - 9.3 points per match in the initial six rounds.

While the points per match in 2011 would end after 18 weeks at 11.9, after the initial six rounds it was as high as 14.13, which when added with the higher number of away wins as 2011 continued post-2011, promises even greater competitiveness than what we have witnessed to this day.

On that note, I think it is time to take time, and hit the kill switch.

We will have to do this again, maybe even before 2012 has come to an end, and see what has transpired.

Yes, lets!

iamjonnyking hopes to post some other words that have a reflective-of-the-initial-six-rounds sense, so please stay tuned.

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

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Tip-Tackles in #SupeRUG, Top-Tackles in Rugby League

March 30/12

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Very much off the cuff, saw this piece of play rush past me.

Therefore, action man that I deceive that I am, I got the nearest device ready, and pushed, record, particularly for my African attractions.

Take a look


In this year’s supeStuff… 5 weeks?

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

Rugby: What Action is Worth a Life Ban in the Sport?

March 30/12

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This question obviously presupposes that there is such an action.

You may disagree with the assumption, which you can illuminate for all, in the comments section.

The reason for this question has been encouraged by a couple of realities, [1] the recent – very ugly [insert: disgusting - this scribe's pre-judgement] – action taken by Northampton-not-so-Saint, Calum Clark, who willfully and seriously injured another player when he broke, Leicester’s, Rob Hawkins’, elbow, with a wrestling-like-leveraging, move. [2] The call from one on the Facebook page, the not-so-dead-Ant, to see Clark banned for life – please join the pain-free fun… on Facebook.

Before we talk more, take a look at the action.


The Punishment?

Clark has pleaded guilty to the incident and has been banned for 32 weeks by the RFU.

However, and again, assuming there is such, what action is worth a Life Ban in Rugby Union?

As a corollary; does 32 weeks meet the Calum Clark crime?

I don’t want to say too much more before you – the native – share your spleen, but ah - sod it, Shakespeare – let me offer some quick ruminations.

Johan le Roux. 19 months for chewing Sean Fitzpatrick’s ear; translated, 79 weeks, or thereabouts.  In the non-professional fields of the sport, we periodically read about a life ban for a certain player attacking a referee, which does not tend to bother our thinking, highlighting another factor in this decision – The livelihood of the offender. It is more than a game.

Should that fact even matter? 

Trying to extrapolate between one judicial ruling to the next for some perspective, is like mapping the worldview of, she’s every women – that is gonna leave a mark – but, it does provide some sort of big picture perspective.

While intent in any action is important, it can become a grey issue, when it is more implicit. However, when the calculation to injure is connected with a significant act, it raises the bar. When there is perspicuity of intent for interpretation, the clarity is there for all to witness.

Rugby is a physical sport, and “things” happen when halfback’s [scrumhalf's] collide. Forwards are not the brightest p[r]ick of the bunch, and sometimes they need to talk about it [insert: hit each other].

Therefore, cleaning up the sport does not mean bleaching it blond!

However, it is clear that Clark’s actions go well beyond the Bakkies in boof-head mode. [1] Hawkins is lying somewhat prone at ruck time. In other words, he is vulnerable to cowardice. It seems from the footage that Hawkins may be the man penalised, and Clark has paid out his own injustice. [2] The whistle has clearly been blown before Clark begins his action, ending the play. The fact that Clark begins his assault, at such time, underscores his mental state. [3] The act itself, which can only be described as a disgusting act of grievous bodily harm. To leverage on someone’s arm with such force to seriously injure is both gutless, and criminal. It behooves the cry for justice.

Clark has called into question the spirit of the game, and soiled his rather spotted reputation [this is a perception; others up north can vouch for reality].

We have brought the fairer sex into the equation, and Hawkins may very well, visit sue. If Messieur Rougerie can have his tens of thousands, the Lad, Clark, could be coughing up more than quarters [for the American readers].

Post those good old “barefoot” days on the field, I am not sure if I have witnessed a better candidate for the call for a Life Ban?

While I hold fire at this point from pulling the trigger – brain-dead, but no death to his future – I can safely say I would have loaded his penalty, with a good deal more pain.

What Say You?

This is understandably a subject that very easily torques the emotion quotient, so please, if the rhetoric is rising, season with reason.

Now, Go!

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

Update: The following words flummox…

“The disciplinary panel found that Calum Clark had not intended to injure Rob Hawkins in the course of moving his arm. Accordingly, the unfortunate injury suffered by Rob Hawkins was unintentional.

“In the light of that finding of the disciplinary panel, Northampton Saints is bound to express concern and disappointment at the imposition of such a long suspension, even after significant mitigation in recognition in what was accepted to be Calum Clark’s genuine remorse

Had not intended to injure?

Swine Flew!

What Say You? 

Again.

Timelapsed Video: The Christchurch Stadium Rebuilt… #Special

March 27/12

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Christchurch has been on the receiving end of an overwhelming deal of hurt over these past eighteen months.

It has tested all, pushing some past the point, but throughout, the rugged individualism that settles easily on the Canterbury Plains, has fueled the internal fire for the city to never say die.

On Saturday night, versus the Cheetahs in #supeRUG, we were given a cultural witness to this demonstration, and a sporting sign toward a new beginning that has a bright future.

In the following timelapsed video, you will get an inside look into the transformation of an historic league haunt in Addington, Christchurch, as it was progressively made fit for a new, Crusade. I just happen to have baked bread at this destination, in my schooling days down south, when the local AMP Show would incline all. #TrueStory

This is Special.


Can’t wait to watch one live.

What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

H/T

#supeRUG: Danny went rebellious with the Dougie to Celebrate with the Fans

March 27/12

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It can be some hard viewing yards in the Australian Conference of #supeRUG, with the Rebels experiencing some recent relative pain with their proceedings on the field – cheetah’d.

However, their day would dougie, as Danny boy set the field aflame, before his ham would be strung, and he would have to leave it to the fans.

A slowing burning, Mark Gerrard, would finish off a fine personal display, as somebody finally penalised Pocock, where it ultimately counts.

Take a look


What Say You?

Until Next Time

iamjonnyking

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